Monday, April 15, 2013

Ray Merriman

Well, today was certainly a dramatic day on Wall Street.  Especially concerning commodities.
Naturally I thought it would be good time to put up Ray Merriman's link and forecast for the week.  Certainly last week's Pluto reversal is in the mix.

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning April 15, 2013
Written by Raymond Merriman   


Review and Preview

    It always happens that way, doesn’t it? You go away for a week and the world of financial markets turns upside down. There are no breaks for those who don’t stay on top of things these days, not with Uranus racing to its third of seven passages of a square aspect to Pluto on May 20. Typical of Uranus, stock indices (in the USA) continued to soar to new all-time highs, while Gold and Silver fell abruptly to new multi-year lows. Typical of Pluto, the economies of more countries tend to teeter on the verge of bankruptcy. Not only Cyrus, but also Italy and China have now had their credit worthiness downgraded in the past month by Fitch’s rating service.  

The big story for many traders and investors was the plunge in Gold and Silver last week, confirming the dominancy stage of the 4.25-year cycle in Gold and 4.34-year cycle in Silver. The prior week (April 4), Gold fell to 1540 and then embarked upon an encouraging $50 rally the next three days, topping at 1590 on Tuesday. Silver’s rally was just as impressive, from a low of 2657 on April 4 to 2802 on Tuesday, April 9. But by Friday, April 12, all of those gains and more were wiped out. Gold collapsed over $80.00 on Friday to close at 1478. Silver fell $1.76 on Friday, (176 in futures terms) ending the week at 2582. Both were new multi-year lows. This scenario was described in detail in our recent special report to subscribers of MMA Cycles, as well as daily and weekly subscribers and all students of last weekend’s launch of the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy). The good news for those who are Gold Bugs is that this is still setting up for the trade of the year, maybe of the next two years, as also described in those reports, which will be reiterated again in the next MMA Cycles report of April 22-23. Also typical of Uranus and Pluto, this nosedive will be fast and furious, and the resultant recovery may be even faster and more furious once it starts.

Best Trades of the Week

Since our last column, the best trade initiated was in the Euro-Yen currency market. Two weeks ago our weekly report (and currency report) advised, “Position traders may buy on a decline back to weekly support with a stop-loss on a close below 118.86.” The support that week was 121.20-121.90. The low was 119.71. This week the Euro-Yen is way up to 131+, a huge gain of nearly 10 points. At $2500/full point on the futures exchange, that’s not too bad.  But an even better trade was the weekly report given for Gold traders, which advised, “Aggressive traders are long… Lets’ cover and reverse to the short side on a move to 1590-1610, with a stop-loss on a close above 1620.” The high was 1590.10. Thus, we made a modest profits on the longs from back at February’s low, and got short just before the huge sell-off on Friday.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Last week ended with Pluto turning retrograde on April 12. As discussed many times in this column, planetary stations will highlight the themes of that planet for the few days surrounding the turn. So once again, we will hear reports and witness arguments about raising taxes, credit downgrades, increasing debts and deficits. If lucky, we will also hear serious proposals for reforms in these very issues, and maybe even an entire overhaul of the tax code in some countries, like the USA. It is a given that taxes will be headlined next week in the USA, for personal income tax reporting is due on April 15. That might be one reason why stocks have surged so much over the past three months as well. Individuals have been contributing huge sums of money to their retirement accounts, and much of that is finding its way into equities, especially in the USA. That factor is taken off the table after next week.

Next week will also witness Mercury leaving Pisces for Aries (April 13), and Venus leaving Aries for Taurus (April 15). This could coincide with a shift in investor psychology, but that doesn’t seem negative for stocks. Venus, which rules things of value (like stocks), enters its ruling sign of Taurus. If anything, that’s probably more bullish.

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